多數的企業/明星/商品/政治人物/有錢(權)人等等的成功皆是偶然,或更明確的說:多數的企業/明星/商品/政治人物/有錢(權)人等等的成功皆是"運氣".
當然所有國內外商業期刊訪問的成功範例(企業/明星/商品/政治人物/有錢(權)人等等),大多不會有將因成功歸因於運氣的報導.因為,人性就是如此--失敗大多歸因時運不濟,成功大多是天縱英明.
2011年10月23日 星期日
2011年10月22日 星期六
技術分析的本質
在期貨領域,由凱恩斯選美理論所發展而成的技術分析若在某些多數時候有用的話,主因是技術分析巳是交易者心理自我催眠進而強化後,從而成為自我實現的預言.
在股票領域,再多技術分析有效的例子或成功的比率都是存活者偏差.本質是垃圾的商品,不論包裝的再好,行銷做得多成功,風險預告多負責任,都不外是在掩飾其垃圾的本質.
在股票領域,再多技術分析有效的例子或成功的比率都是存活者偏差.本質是垃圾的商品,不論包裝的再好,行銷做得多成功,風險預告多負責任,都不外是在掩飾其垃圾的本質.
2011年10月21日 星期五
(book) 金融吃人魔
A demon of our own design -- by Richard Bookstaber
當前會計方法不能反應企業真正價值,你只要看看市場價格和帳面價格之間的顯著差別,就會明白我為什麼這樣講.
兼具交互複雜度和緊密連結兩種特性的系統,潛在的危機最大; 鬆散的連結可以挽救複雜性引起的問題,相對的,單純的線性系統亦能消除緊密連結的失誤.
在當今資訊充斥的世界裡,知道別人不知道的消息機會太少,所以主要的優勢來自如何從大家都知道的消息裡,做出獨樹一幟的蒐集和分析.
蟑螂非凡的成就,並不只是它生存了這麼久,而是它居然能靠著簡單又不完美的構造就能生存這麼久.它唯一的防禦系統就是在偵測到有輕微的空氣流動時,迅速逃開.
金融商品的單純化和減低財務槓桿的應用,是修正我們市場設計的兩帖苦口良藥.
當前會計方法不能反應企業真正價值,你只要看看市場價格和帳面價格之間的顯著差別,就會明白我為什麼這樣講.
兼具交互複雜度和緊密連結兩種特性的系統,潛在的危機最大; 鬆散的連結可以挽救複雜性引起的問題,相對的,單純的線性系統亦能消除緊密連結的失誤.
在當今資訊充斥的世界裡,知道別人不知道的消息機會太少,所以主要的優勢來自如何從大家都知道的消息裡,做出獨樹一幟的蒐集和分析.
蟑螂非凡的成就,並不只是它生存了這麼久,而是它居然能靠著簡單又不完美的構造就能生存這麼久.它唯一的防禦系統就是在偵測到有輕微的空氣流動時,迅速逃開.
金融商品的單純化和減低財務槓桿的應用,是修正我們市場設計的兩帖苦口良藥.
Every Bible should have a note
Warning: This is a work of fiction.Do NOT take it literally.
CONTENT ADVISORY: Contains verses descriptive or advocating suicide,incest,bestiality,sadomasochism,sexual activity in a violent context,murder,morbid violence,use of drugs or alcohol,homosexuality,voyeurism,revenge,undermining of authority figures,lawlessness,and human rights violations and atrocities.
EXPOSURE WARNING : Exposure to contents for extended periods of time or during formative years in children may cause delusions,hallucinations,decreased cognitive and objective reasoning abilities,and,in extreme cases,pathological disorders,hatred,bigotry,and violence including,but not limited to fanaticism,murder,and genocide.
CONTENT ADVISORY: Contains verses descriptive or advocating suicide,incest,bestiality,sadomasochism,sexual activity in a violent context,murder,morbid violence,use of drugs or alcohol,homosexuality,voyeurism,revenge,undermining of authority figures,lawlessness,and human rights violations and atrocities.
EXPOSURE WARNING : Exposure to contents for extended periods of time or during formative years in children may cause delusions,hallucinations,decreased cognitive and objective reasoning abilities,and,in extreme cases,pathological disorders,hatred,bigotry,and violence including,but not limited to fanaticism,murder,and genocide.
2011年10月18日 星期二
(book) 大腦煉金術
Your Money and Your Brain -- by Jason Zweig
心智健全的人似乎有一種令人羨慕的能力,能夠把現實向加強自尊的方向扭曲,促進未來樂觀的看法.
我們堅持自己知道的比實際上還多,主要原因很可能是承認自己無知會傷害自尊.
一旦你知道什麼信號可能預示報酬,你的多巴胺神經元不再會對報酬本身產生反應,而是對出現的信號產生反應.
金融市場總是羞辱自以為知道未來的人.因此避免驚訝最好的方法,是預期一定會碰到驚訝的事情.
心智健全的人似乎有一種令人羨慕的能力,能夠把現實向加強自尊的方向扭曲,促進未來樂觀的看法.
我們堅持自己知道的比實際上還多,主要原因很可能是承認自己無知會傷害自尊.
一旦你知道什麼信號可能預示報酬,你的多巴胺神經元不再會對報酬本身產生反應,而是對出現的信號產生反應.
金融市場總是羞辱自以為知道未來的人.因此避免驚訝最好的方法,是預期一定會碰到驚訝的事情.
2011年10月4日 星期二
(book) 為什麼會賠錢
The Little Book of Behavioral Investing :
How Not to Be Your Own Worst Enemy -- by James Montier
一般來說,人們討厭輸的程度,大概是他們享受等值回報程度的2到2.5倍,這就是所謂的損失趨避(loss aversion)
原賦效應(endowment effect)指的是你一旦擁有一項物品,就會開始賦予此物品比其他人所認為要來得高的價值
看著奧運比賽,聽著那些成功運動選手的訪談,採訪者似乎經常問一個笨問題: [你在比賽前心裡的想法是什麼?你原先就認為自己會拿到金牌嗎?] 一次又一次地,這些選手的回應都是他們專注於過程,而不是結果
How Not to Be Your Own Worst Enemy -- by James Montier
一般來說,人們討厭輸的程度,大概是他們享受等值回報程度的2到2.5倍,這就是所謂的損失趨避(loss aversion)
原賦效應(endowment effect)指的是你一旦擁有一項物品,就會開始賦予此物品比其他人所認為要來得高的價值
看著奧運比賽,聽著那些成功運動選手的訪談,採訪者似乎經常問一個笨問題: [你在比賽前心裡的想法是什麼?你原先就認為自己會拿到金牌嗎?] 一次又一次地,這些選手的回應都是他們專注於過程,而不是結果
(book) 投資人宣言
The Investor's Manifesto -- by William Bernstein
風險與報酬的關係實在是太重要了,我要再強調一次:假如投資人沒有在某些時候承擔巨大的損失,那麼他便無法賺取高報酬.假如投資人希冀安全,那麼他註定拿到低報酬.
假如人生的秘訣之一是,在別人都失去理智之際,仍要保持自身的冷靜,那麼高登方程式便是提神醒腦的良方: 預期報酬率 = 股利殖利率 + 股利成長率
IPO具有很高的娛樂價值,很低的投資回報
風險與報酬的關係實在是太重要了,我要再強調一次:假如投資人沒有在某些時候承擔巨大的損失,那麼他便無法賺取高報酬.假如投資人希冀安全,那麼他註定拿到低報酬.
假如人生的秘訣之一是,在別人都失去理智之際,仍要保持自身的冷靜,那麼高登方程式便是提神醒腦的良方: 預期報酬率 = 股利殖利率 + 股利成長率
IPO具有很高的娛樂價值,很低的投資回報
(book) 金融的邏輯
金融的邏輯 -- by陳志武
金融的核心是跨時間/跨空間的價值交換,所有涉及到價值或者收入在不同時間/不同空間之間進行配置的交易都是金融交易,金融學就是研究跨時間/跨空間的價值為什麼會出現/如何發生/怎樣發展,等等.
效用決定價值,而不是勞動成本決定價值,這對於理解金融的邏輯極為重要.
儒家文化強調壓抑個人世界,閹割個性,讓你只知道你的名分,讓你絲毫不能有質疑/挑戰長者或權威的動向,讓你只能按照士大夫給你設定的麻木人生去過日子.
金融的核心是跨時間/跨空間的價值交換,所有涉及到價值或者收入在不同時間/不同空間之間進行配置的交易都是金融交易,金融學就是研究跨時間/跨空間的價值為什麼會出現/如何發生/怎樣發展,等等.
效用決定價值,而不是勞動成本決定價值,這對於理解金融的邏輯極為重要.
儒家文化強調壓抑個人世界,閹割個性,讓你只知道你的名分,讓你絲毫不能有質疑/挑戰長者或權威的動向,讓你只能按照士大夫給你設定的麻木人生去過日子.
2011年10月2日 星期日
美國國債的前15大持有者(Sep 2010)
The Biggest Holders of US Government Debt ( By:CNBC.com )
1. Federal Reserve and Intragovernmental Holdings
US debt holdings: $5.351 trillion
That’s right, the biggest holder of US government debt is actually within the United States. The Federal Reserve system of banks and other US intragovernmental holdings account for a stunning $5.351 trillion in US Treasury debt. This is the most recent number available (Sept 2010), and marks an all-time high.
About a decade ago, the total government holdings were "only" $2.5 trillion.
2. Other Investors/Savings Bonds
US debt holdings $1.458 trillion
With the most recent numbers from Sept 2010, this extremely diverse group includes individuals, government-sponsored enterprises, brokers and dealers, bank personal trusts, estates, savings bonds, corporate and non-corporate businesses for a total of $1.458 trillion.
Although the level of debt held in U.S. savings bonds has remained relatively constant since 2000, the broad category of "Other" investors has nearly quadrupled since reaching a four-year low in September 2007.
3. China
US debt holdings: $895.6 billion
The largest foreign holder of US Treasury securities, China currently holds $895.6 billion in American debt, although it is down from all time highs of $929 billion one year earlier in November 2009.
4. Japan
US debt holdings: $877.2 billion
A major US trade partner, Japan holds a huge amount of American debt, and has traditionally been one of the US's largest debt holders, currently owning $877.2 billion of treasury securities.
5. Pension Funds
US debt holdings: $706.4 billion
Pension funds control large amounts of money, reserved for personal retirements, and thus are obligated to make relatively safe investments.
This group includes both private and local government pension funds, totaling $706.4 billion. The private pension fund category also includes US Treasury securities held by the Federal Employees Retirement System Thrift Savings Plan "G Fund."
6. Mutual Funds
US debt holdings: $637.7 billion
According to the Federal Reserve, mutual funds hold the fifth largest amount of US debt compared to any other group, although mutual fund holdings have diminished by nearly $130 billion since December 2008.
Including money market funds, mutual funds and closed-end funds, this group of investments manages approximately $637.7 billion of US Treasury securities as of June 2010, which are the most recent numbers available.
7. (Tied) State and Local Governments
US debt holdings: $511.8 billion
US state and local governments have over a half-trillion dollars invested in American debt, according to the Federal Reserve. That's the same amount of US debt held by the United Kingdom.
The level of investment has remained very stable over the past three years, moving within the range of $534.7 billion and $550.3 billion from 2006 to 2009, and although the amount has been increasing, the total value of holdings are off the highs.
However, this number does not include an additional $174.5 billion of holdings of treasury notes in state and local government pension funds.
7. (Tied) United Kingdom
US debt holdings: $511.8 billion
Britain currently holds $511.8 billion in US debt. The country has ramped up its debt throughout 2010, rising from $208.3 billion in January to the most recent November numbers, which have the holdings up approximately 246% during the year.
9. Depository Institutions
US debt holdings: $269.8 billion
As of June 2010 (the most recent numbers currently available), the Federal Reserve Board of Governors lists depository institutions as holding approximately $269.8 billion in US debt.
This group includes commercial banks, savings banks and credit unions and has nearly tripled from Q4 2008, when holdings stood at $105 billion.
10. Insurance Companies
US debt holdings: $261.8 billion
According to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, insurance companies hold $261.8 billion in Treasury securities. This group includes property-casualty and life insurance firms.
11. Oil Exporters
US debt holdings: $210.4 billion
Big oil means big money... and big investment into US debt.
Included in the group of oil exporters are Ecuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria.
The group combines for a total of $210.4 billion, which is within the $190 billion to $232 billion range they have maintained in the past year.
12. Brazil
US debt holdings: $184.4 billion
The South American economic giant has $184.4 billion in holdings, according to the Treasury.
Brazil’s investment into US debt has been fluctuating slightly over the past two years, but this current level respresents an all-time high for the country.
13. Caribbean Banking Centers
US debt holdings: $146.3 billion
The US Treasury identifies this group as institutions in the Bahamas, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, Netherlands Antilles, Panama and the British Virgin Islands.
Holdings are currently listed at $146.3 billion, down about $20 billion from 2010's high of $166.3 billion in May 2010. The group's all-time high of $213.6 billion was reached in March 2009.
14. Hong Kong
US debt holdings: $138.9 billion
Hong Kong is one of the world's largest holders of US debt, although in 2010 the region has cut its holdings by approximately $8 billion from January levels.
15. Canada
For the first time in recent history, Canada's holdings of US debt has broken into the top 15, surpassing Taiwan by about $3.6 billion in November 2010.
Canada's holdings of US debt in 2010 have increased in each of the past 12 months, shooting up 266% since November 2009.
1. Federal Reserve and Intragovernmental Holdings
US debt holdings: $5.351 trillion
That’s right, the biggest holder of US government debt is actually within the United States. The Federal Reserve system of banks and other US intragovernmental holdings account for a stunning $5.351 trillion in US Treasury debt. This is the most recent number available (Sept 2010), and marks an all-time high.
About a decade ago, the total government holdings were "only" $2.5 trillion.
2. Other Investors/Savings Bonds
US debt holdings $1.458 trillion
With the most recent numbers from Sept 2010, this extremely diverse group includes individuals, government-sponsored enterprises, brokers and dealers, bank personal trusts, estates, savings bonds, corporate and non-corporate businesses for a total of $1.458 trillion.
Although the level of debt held in U.S. savings bonds has remained relatively constant since 2000, the broad category of "Other" investors has nearly quadrupled since reaching a four-year low in September 2007.
3. China
US debt holdings: $895.6 billion
The largest foreign holder of US Treasury securities, China currently holds $895.6 billion in American debt, although it is down from all time highs of $929 billion one year earlier in November 2009.
4. Japan
US debt holdings: $877.2 billion
A major US trade partner, Japan holds a huge amount of American debt, and has traditionally been one of the US's largest debt holders, currently owning $877.2 billion of treasury securities.
5. Pension Funds
US debt holdings: $706.4 billion
Pension funds control large amounts of money, reserved for personal retirements, and thus are obligated to make relatively safe investments.
This group includes both private and local government pension funds, totaling $706.4 billion. The private pension fund category also includes US Treasury securities held by the Federal Employees Retirement System Thrift Savings Plan "G Fund."
6. Mutual Funds
US debt holdings: $637.7 billion
According to the Federal Reserve, mutual funds hold the fifth largest amount of US debt compared to any other group, although mutual fund holdings have diminished by nearly $130 billion since December 2008.
Including money market funds, mutual funds and closed-end funds, this group of investments manages approximately $637.7 billion of US Treasury securities as of June 2010, which are the most recent numbers available.
7. (Tied) State and Local Governments
US debt holdings: $511.8 billion
US state and local governments have over a half-trillion dollars invested in American debt, according to the Federal Reserve. That's the same amount of US debt held by the United Kingdom.
The level of investment has remained very stable over the past three years, moving within the range of $534.7 billion and $550.3 billion from 2006 to 2009, and although the amount has been increasing, the total value of holdings are off the highs.
However, this number does not include an additional $174.5 billion of holdings of treasury notes in state and local government pension funds.
7. (Tied) United Kingdom
US debt holdings: $511.8 billion
Britain currently holds $511.8 billion in US debt. The country has ramped up its debt throughout 2010, rising from $208.3 billion in January to the most recent November numbers, which have the holdings up approximately 246% during the year.
9. Depository Institutions
US debt holdings: $269.8 billion
As of June 2010 (the most recent numbers currently available), the Federal Reserve Board of Governors lists depository institutions as holding approximately $269.8 billion in US debt.
This group includes commercial banks, savings banks and credit unions and has nearly tripled from Q4 2008, when holdings stood at $105 billion.
10. Insurance Companies
US debt holdings: $261.8 billion
According to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, insurance companies hold $261.8 billion in Treasury securities. This group includes property-casualty and life insurance firms.
11. Oil Exporters
US debt holdings: $210.4 billion
Big oil means big money... and big investment into US debt.
Included in the group of oil exporters are Ecuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria.
The group combines for a total of $210.4 billion, which is within the $190 billion to $232 billion range they have maintained in the past year.
12. Brazil
US debt holdings: $184.4 billion
The South American economic giant has $184.4 billion in holdings, according to the Treasury.
Brazil’s investment into US debt has been fluctuating slightly over the past two years, but this current level respresents an all-time high for the country.
13. Caribbean Banking Centers
US debt holdings: $146.3 billion
The US Treasury identifies this group as institutions in the Bahamas, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, Netherlands Antilles, Panama and the British Virgin Islands.
Holdings are currently listed at $146.3 billion, down about $20 billion from 2010's high of $166.3 billion in May 2010. The group's all-time high of $213.6 billion was reached in March 2009.
14. Hong Kong
US debt holdings: $138.9 billion
Hong Kong is one of the world's largest holders of US debt, although in 2010 the region has cut its holdings by approximately $8 billion from January levels.
15. Canada
For the first time in recent history, Canada's holdings of US debt has broken into the top 15, surpassing Taiwan by about $3.6 billion in November 2010.
Canada's holdings of US debt in 2010 have increased in each of the past 12 months, shooting up 266% since November 2009.
2011年10月1日 星期六
Power錕
台大政治學教授 李錫錕:
人的座車要500匹馬力做什麼??
一個人為什麼要500匹馬力的力量拖著他走?
這代表什麼?!
就是POWER阿!!
爽阿~POWER就是爽~
沒POWER就是不爽~
如果你在等著人家的愛跟關懷，你就是那個病人，等人家捐贈骨髓，因為You are dying，你們希望台大畢業生dying嗎？你們希望台大畢業生都在等待社會國家外國對你們的愛跟關懷嗎？你們要爭取的是你對別人的愛跟對別人的關懷。
這個社會被騙了,階級一直都存在,只是換句話說, 今天你去跟一個計程車司機說:『你是社會的最低層』他會回你拎北不載你.你去跟他說:『每個人都扮演不同的角色,你也同樣扮演著不可或缺的一角,將軍是上將,你也不錯啊你是運將』,他聽了就會很爽.
同學(指著前排的女生),你以後30歲了又拿到PHD當了台大教授,可是午夜夢迴起床看月亮,為什麼?? Lonely啊!!
你只要聽有錢人名人演講,底下坐著的那些現在是窮鬼,以後也一定是窮鬼!
人的座車要500匹馬力做什麼??
一個人為什麼要500匹馬力的力量拖著他走?
這代表什麼?!
就是POWER阿!!
爽阿~POWER就是爽~
沒POWER就是不爽~
如果你在等著人家的愛跟關懷，你就是那個病人，等人家捐贈骨髓，因為You are dying，你們希望台大畢業生dying嗎？你們希望台大畢業生都在等待社會國家外國對你們的愛跟關懷嗎？你們要爭取的是你對別人的愛跟對別人的關懷。
這個社會被騙了,階級一直都存在,只是換句話說, 今天你去跟一個計程車司機說:『你是社會的最低層』他會回你拎北不載你.你去跟他說:『每個人都扮演不同的角色,你也同樣扮演著不可或缺的一角,將軍是上將,你也不錯啊你是運將』,他聽了就會很爽.
同學(指著前排的女生),你以後30歲了又拿到PHD當了台大教授,可是午夜夢迴起床看月亮,為什麼?? Lonely啊!!
你只要聽有錢人名人演講,底下坐著的那些現在是窮鬼,以後也一定是窮鬼!
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